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Latest Edition // ORDERBOOK #01

Anatomy of a World Cup market

$9.25M, 33,000 traders, and one very expensive bet against Mexico. A Polymarket order-book analysis of Mexico 2–0 South Africa.

JUN 15, 2026 | Match Analysis
Implied win probability over Mexico 2–0 South Africa. Mexico (green) rises in steps from 68.5% to ~99% across two goals and two red cards, while Draw (blue, from 21.5%) and South Africa (amber, from 10.5%) fall toward zero.

Field Notes

JUN 15, 2026 // Field Note

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Why we're starting a journal, and what you can expect in each edition.

Field Note 2 MIN READ

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  • Match Analysis 1
  • Field Notes 1
SYSTEM_STATUS OPERATIONAL
EDITIONS_PUBLISHED 1
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