Recent Editions

Implied win probability over Mexico 2–0 South Africa. Mexico (green) rises in steps from 68.5% to ~99% across two goals and two red cards, while Draw (blue, from 21.5%) and South Africa (amber, from 10.5%) fall toward zero.

Orderbook #01

Anatomy of a World Cup market

$9.25M, 33,000 traders, and one very expensive bet against Mexico. A Polymarket order-book analysis of Mexico 2–0 South Africa.

JUN 15, 2026

Field Notes